1. Economic Risks: The primary risk to the forecast is potential tariffs imposed by Canada's largest trading partner (the U.S.), which could affect Alberta's economy. Projections range from severe tariffs (25%) to no tariffs at all, with most assuming moderate tariffs that avoid a recession but still impact the economy.

2. Tariff Impact on Housing: If broad tariffs are imposed, Alberta could face a recession, leading to reduced investment, employment, and consumer confidence, which would decrease housing demand. However, if tariffs are limited or exempt from the energy sector, economic conditions could remain strong, supporting the housing market.

3. Federal Election Risk: A federal election and any potential policy changes regarding the energy sector could create economic uncertainty, potentially affecting the housing market. This uncertainty could lead to delays in housing decisions and impact market conditions.

4. Upside Risk: If tariffs are avoided or reduced, economic growth in Alberta could accelerate, attracting more interprovincial migration and stimulating housing demand and price growth. This scenario would support stronger-than-expected housing activity.

5. Uncertainty and Housing Activity: Prolonged economic uncertainty, even without tariffs, could dampen consumer confidence and housing activity, especially in the early part of the year. Lower lending rates might counterbalance this, helping to support stronger-than-expected housing sales.

(Source: CREB 2025 forecast Calgary & Region Yearly Outlook Report)